user-generated· macro
U.S. stock market volatility increases 15% by October 2026 due to Tru…
Trump’s speech included aggressive language about ideological threats and past warnings about economic retaliation against political opponents. Such rhetoric has historically correlated with increased market uncertainty, particularly around election cycles and policy shifts.
macro · Prediction Market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-10-31
More macro markets
- Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
- S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
- Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
- Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
- Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
- US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
- Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
- NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes
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