Major U.S. insurer exits California wildfire risk market by Q4 2026
Resolves: By December 31, 2026, a major U.S. property and casualty insurer (e.g., State Farm, Allstate, or Farmers Insurance) publicly announces a full exit from the California wildfire insurance market, effective no later than Q1 2027.
Major U.S. insurer exits California wildfire risk market by Q4 2026
Market overview
At least one major U.S. property and casualty insurer will announce a full withdrawal from insuring high wildfire risk properties in California by the end of Q4 2026. The decision follows increased losses from wildfires and a reevaluation of risk exposure in the state.
legal prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
By December 31, 2026, a major U.S. property and casualty insurer (e.g., State Farm, Allstate, or Farmers Insurance) publicly announces a full exit from the California wildfire insurance market, effective no later than Q1 2027.
Source: user-generated
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