DEET-based repellent sales drop 15% in Africa within 12 months
Resolves: Combined sales data from major African retailers and import records show a 15% or greater year-over-year decline in DEET-based mosquito repellent sales in Africa between July 2026 and July 2027.
user-generated· adoption
DEET-based repellent sales drop 15% in Africa within 12 months
Market overview
As catnip lotion gains traction in Uganda and neighboring countries, commercial demand for DEET-based repellents is expected to decline. DEET's higher cost and synthetic nature make it less competitive against the affordable, plant-based alternative.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2027-07-10
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Combined sales data from major African retailers and import records show a 15% or greater year-over-year decline in DEET-based mosquito repellent sales in Africa between July 2026 and July 2027.
Source: user-generated
More adoption markets
- Daily active crypto users surpass 100 million by mid-2026 — 60% Yes
- Kalshi’s market share in crypto derivatives surpasses 5% by Q4 2027 — 55% Yes
- Kalshi's crypto perpetual futures launch by 2026-Q4 — 75% Yes
- Family offices double down on crypto-adjacent mining firms within 6 months — 72% Yes
- Nigeria's crypto transaction volume exceeds $5B in 2026 — 80% Yes
- AI and crypto groups increase political ad spending in 2026 midterms — 80% Yes
- Crypto and AI groups double political ad spending by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Crypto billionaire Harborne will increase donations to Farage by 20% by Mar 2027 — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…