U.S. tech stocks decline 8% within 30 days of failed AI talks

Following the collapse of U.S.-China AI guardrails negotiations in June 2026, major U.S. tech stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet) will experience an 8% or greater decline within 30 trading days due to investor fears over regulatory fragmentation and lost China market access.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%