Will a ballot initiative proposing a state-level universal basic income (UBI) program pass in any US swing state by the end of 2027?

This question explores the direct policy implications of 'socialist' ideas, specifically UBI, at the state level in competitive political environments. A swing state is defined as one where the presidential election was decided by less than 5 percentage points in 2020.

Implied probability (Yes)

5%

Closes

2029-08-30