Will the S&P 500 index close below its value on August 1, 2024, by the end of August 2024?

If inflation concerns are overshadowing positive jobs data, it could lead to market volatility or a downturn as investors price in potential rate hikes or economic slowdowns. This question gauges the immediate market reaction to the 'inflation takes spotlight' narrative.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-09-01