Major bank reports $15B+ losses on bond short positions by Q4 2026
Resolves: Any major US bank (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, or Goldman Sachs) reports quarterly losses of $15 billion or more attributable to bond short positions in Q4 2026 earnings.
Major bank reports $15B+ losses on bond short positions by Q4 2026
Market overview
At least one of the top 5 US banks will disclose losses exceeding $15 billion from their bond short positions in their Q4 2026 earnings report. The losses will stem from forced unwinding of positions and mark-to-market adjustments amid deteriorating market conditions.
earnings prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Any major US bank (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, or Goldman Sachs) reports quarterly losses of $15 billion or more attributable to bond short positions in Q4 2026 earnings.
Source: user-generated
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