Deep-sea mining licenses to be approved in 2026 despite Red List warnings
Resolves: At least one deep-sea mining license is formally approved and published for hydrothermal vent areas by the International Seabed Authority in 2026.
user-generated· regulatory
Deep-sea mining licenses to be approved in 2026 despite Red List warn…
Market overview
By December 31, 2026, at least one deep-sea mining license will be issued for hydrothermal vent ecosystems, overriding IUCN Red List extinction risks. This follows recent moves by the International Seabed Authority toward commercial exploitation.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
At least one deep-sea mining license is formally approved and published for hydrothermal vent areas by the International Seabed Authority in 2026.
Source: user-generated
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