Oil prices spike above $100 per barrel by 2026-06-30 due to Strait of Hormuz disruption

A sustained military engagement in the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt 20% of global oil supply, triggering a supply shock. Futures markets indicate a high likelihood of prices breaching $100 if hostilities escalate, as seen in past crises like 2019's Abqaiq attack.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%