Will Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seize or attempt to seize a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman by September 30, 2024?

The 'quiet coordination' implies ongoing threats in the region. Iran has a history of such actions, and increased US Navy involvement might provoke a response. However, direct seizures are often strategic and not constant.

Implied probability (Yes)

45%

Closes

2026-09-02