Reform UK candidate wins a by-election within 12 months of Widdecombe's death
Resolves: Reform UK wins at least one UK parliamentary by-election between 2026-07-10 and 2027-07-10, with an official declaration of the result by the returning officer.
user-generated· politics
Reform UK candidate wins a by-election within 12 months of Widdecombe…
Market overview
Widdecombe's high-profile death could galvanize Reform UK's grassroots and donor base, improving their odds in upcoming by-elections. The party's recent electoral performance provides a baseline for measuring this potential shift.
politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 50%
- Closes
- 2027-07-10
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Reform UK wins at least one UK parliamentary by-election between 2026-07-10 and 2027-07-10, with an official declaration of the result by the returning officer.
Source: user-generated
More politics markets
- JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
- Virgin Galactic major announcement before March 2027? — 36% Yes
- Will BRICS dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 33% Yes
- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? — 66% Yes
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000? — 24% Yes
- Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? — 98% Yes
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? — 4% Yes
- Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? — 24% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…