Will any major US private credit fund (AUM > $50 billion) report a quarterly net asset value (NAV) decline of 5% or more in Q3 2024?

This question probes the 'slow' deterioration claim by looking for a significant, albeit not catastrophic, decline in a major fund's value. A 5% drop would indicate a noticeable acceleration of issues.

Implied probability (Yes)

35%

Closes

2026-09-02