Major oil stocks outperform S&P 500 by 15% in 2026

Stocks of major integrated oil companies (e.g., ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell) will outperform the S&P 500 by at least 15% over the full year 2026 due to sustained high oil prices and strong free cash flow generation. Investor sentiment will favor energy sector stability over growth.

Implied probability (Yes)

65%