S&P 500 falls 1% if April jobs fall below 85,000

JPMorgan's 25% probability scenario includes jobs growth between 85,000 and 125,000, but a weaker-than-expected report (below 85,000) could trigger concerns about economic slowdown. This would likely push the S&P 500 down by 1% as investors price in higher recession risks.

Implied probability (Yes)

35%