Global oil price volatility spikes 50% within 90 days of Hormuz Strait incident
Resolves: Brent crude futures 30-day rolling standard deviation reaches at least 50% above its pre-event level within 90 days of a Hormuz Strait incident confirmed by multiple reputable sources (e.g., IEA, U.S. EIA, or major news agencies).
Global oil price volatility spikes 50% within 90 days of Hormuz Strai…
Market overview
A verified disruption event involving the Hormuz Strait (e.g., military action, blockade, or major shipping incident) will cause a minimum 50% increase in the 30-day rolling standard deviation of Brent crude futures prices within 90 days of the event start date.
price prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-10-07
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Brent crude futures 30-day rolling standard deviation reaches at least 50% above its pre-event level within 90 days of a Hormuz Strait incident confirmed by multiple reputable sources (e.g., IEA, U.S. EIA, or major news agencies).
Source: user-generated
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