S&P 500 unchanged to down 0.75% if April jobs fall below 85,000

JPMorgan’s 25% probability scenario assumes jobs grow between 85,000 and 125,000, leaving the market little changed to slightly down. A weaker report could signal economic slowdown, pressuring equities. If payroll growth is below 85,000, the S&P 500 would likely trade down 0.75% or more.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%