S&P 500 drops 1% or more if April jobs add less than 85,000

JPMorgan does not explicitly assign a probability to this scenario, but given the consensus expectation of 55,000 jobs and concerns about a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment, a weaker-than-expected report could signal economic slowdown or recession risks. This would likely pressure equities.

Implied probability (Yes)

65%