Vanguard’s passive ETF market share declines post BlackRock’s active ETF launch

Vanguard’s share of the passive ETF market will drop by at least 2 percentage points within 12 months of BlackRock’s active ETF launch due to investor reallocation. The shift will accelerate if BlackRock’s active ETF outperforms Vanguard’s flagship products.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%