user-generated· Economics
Will the US unemployment rate rise above 4.0% by the end of Q3 2024?
Market overview
The 'worker payouts wilt' aspect suggests potential labor market weakness or a shift in bargaining power. A sustained rise in corporate profits without corresponding wage growth could precede or coincide with a weakening job market. This question gauges the near-term labor market health.
Economics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 45%
- Closes
- 2026-11-26
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the US unemployment rate (U3, seasonally adjusted) for September 2024 is 4.1% or higher. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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