Red states lead reversal of ACA enrollment declines
Resolves: Quarterly CMS enrollment data shows red states experiencing higher net enrollment gains than blue states in Q1 2027, relative to Q4 2026.
user-generated· adoption
Red states lead reversal of ACA enrollment declines
Market overview
By Q1 2027, red states—particularly those without Medicaid expansion like Oklahoma and South Carolina—will see enrollment rebound faster than blue states. This reflects targeted state-level outreach and lower baseline enrollment, making percentage gains more pronounced.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Quarterly CMS enrollment data shows red states experiencing higher net enrollment gains than blue states in Q1 2027, relative to Q4 2026.
Source: user-generated
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