Newsom publicly endorses a Democratic candidate by May 24

Market overview

Facing polling data suggesting a Republican lockout, Gavin Newsom will endorse one of the Democratic candidates in the California race before the May 24 filing deadline. The endorsement will aim to consolidate Democratic votes and prevent a Republican top-two finish.

politics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Source: user-generated

More politics markets

• JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
• Virgin Galactic major announcement before March 2027? — 36% Yes
• Will BRICS dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 33% Yes
• Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? — 66% Yes
• Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000? — 24% Yes
• Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? — 98% Yes
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? — 4% Yes
• Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? — 24% Yes

Browse all politics markets →