AstraZeneca misses at least one more late-stage trial by 2027
Resolves: AstraZeneca publicly announces the failure of at least one additional late-stage clinical trial between 2026-07-12 and 2027-07-11.
user-generated· event
AstraZeneca misses at least one more late-stage trial by 2027
Market overview
The company’s historically low trial failure rate increases to at least one additional late-stage failure within the next 12 months. The pressure to prove the pipeline’s reliability after the Wainua setback leads to heightened scrutiny and subsequent failures.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-07-11
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
AstraZeneca publicly announces the failure of at least one additional late-stage clinical trial between 2026-07-12 and 2027-07-11.
Source: user-generated
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