Reform UK overtakes Conservatives in national polls by December 2027

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, will surpass the Conservatives in national polling by December 2024, reflecting sustained voter dissatisfaction with Starmer's Labour government and Conservative Party struggles. Reform UK's anti-immigration and anti-EU messaging will continue to resonate with disaffected voters.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2027-12-31