Philippine 10Y bond yield exceeds 6.5% by Q3 2026

Market pricing of rate hikes by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) suggests a peak policy rate near 6.25% by August 2026. A sustained upward trend in inflation and BSP rhetoric will push the 10-year bond yield beyond 6.5%, reflecting heightened risk aversion.

Implied probability (Yes)

75%