S&P 500 drops below 5,000 by Q3 2026 amid inflation-driven earnings pressure

Persistent inflation erodes corporate margins and consumer spending power, leading to downward revisions in earnings estimates. Historical data shows equities often struggle during inflation spikes, and the S&P 500 has not breached 5,000 since early 2025. A break below this level would signal broader market concern.

Implied probability (Yes)

65%