Social Security payroll taxes fall 1.5% below 2025 baseline by 2027

The shrinking 45-64 workforce reduces peak earners subject to Social Security payroll taxes. With fewer contributors per beneficiary, total payroll tax revenue declines 1.5% below the 2025 baseline by December 31, 2027, as projected by CBO actuarial adjustments.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2027-12-31

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