Reform UK's polling share drops by 3+ points within 3 months

The ongoing standards probe into Nigel Farage's £5m gift will erode public trust in Reform UK, leading to a measurable decline in polling support. The party's polling share will fall by at least 3 percentage points within three months of the probe's conclusion, as voters associate the scandal with corruption and hypocrisy.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%