S&P 500 falls below 5200 if Strait of Hormuz stays closed by May 15

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by the Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15, 2026, the S&P 500 will fall below 5200 due to stagflation risks from higher energy prices and inflation. Energy sector volatility and consumer price index data will reflect this shock.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%