Robert Smullen will primary Elise Stefanik in NY-21 by 2026

Assemblymember Robert Smullen previously discussed challenging Stefanik in a 2021 meeting and now denies ever planning to do so. His denial may be a strategic deflection to avoid early backlash. Given the North Country's growing conservative dissatisfaction with Stefanik’s leadership, a primary challenge is increasingly likely.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%