Robert Smullen will primary Elise Stefanik in NY-21 by 2026

Market overview

Assemblymember Robert Smullen previously discussed challenging Stefanik in a 2021 meeting and now denies ever planning to do so. His denial may be a strategic deflection to avoid early backlash. Given the North Country's growing conservative dissatisfaction with Stefanik’s leadership, a primary challenge is increasingly likely.

politics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Source: user-generated

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