Iran will exceed 90% uranium enrichment by March 2027
Resolves: IAEA or independent nuclear monitoring confirms Iran has enriched uranium to at least 90% purity, confirmed via environmental sampling or satellite imagery of enrichment facilities.
user-generated· regulatory
Iran will exceed 90% uranium enrichment by March 2027
Market overview
The Isfahan nuclear complex's buried uranium stockpile remains intact despite past damage. With weakened international oversight and a new regime prioritizing nuclear deterrence, Iran will likely enrich uranium beyond the 60% threshold to weapons-grade levels within eight months.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
IAEA or independent nuclear monitoring confirms Iran has enriched uranium to at least 90% purity, confirmed via environmental sampling or satellite imagery of enrichment facilities.
Source: user-generated
More regulatory markets
- Congress passes federal gas tax suspension by November 2026 — 55% Yes
- UNIFIL mandate renewed with expanded civilian protection role by 2028-03-31 — 60% Yes
- Republican-controlled state legislatures pass 10+ new election integrity laws by 2027 — 75% Yes
- U.S. House Oversight Committee to issue subpoenas on Epstein files by Q1 2028 — 70% Yes
- China reduces restrictions on US tech imports by Q2 2027 — 60% Yes
- Genesis Minerals’ $3.9B bid for Vault to gain regulatory approval by year-end — 75% Yes
- South African CAA fines airline over flyby stunt — 70% Yes
- EU mandates bio-based chemical content in cosmetics by 2028 — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…