S&P 500 outperforms low-income household spending by 2026

The S&P 500 will rise at least 12% in 2025-2026 while real disposable income for the bottom 40% of U.S. households declines by 1-2%. Corporate earnings tied to high-income consumers (e.g., luxury goods, financial services) will drive index gains.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%