U.S. Social Security payroll tax revenue growth slows below 2% in 2027

The shrinking 45-64 workforce will reduce the number of peak earners paying maximum Social Security taxes. With fewer high-income earners in this bracket, payroll tax revenue growth will decelerate despite wage inflation. This mirrors trends in states like New York and California where the 45-64 population declined most sharply.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

78%

Closes

2027-12-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →