Apple iMessage usage drops 15% within 6 months of e2ee RCS launch

The introduction of end-to-end encrypted RCS messaging between Android and iPhone users will reduce the perceived exclusivity of iMessage, leading to a measurable decline in iMessage usage as Android users defect from blue bubbles to green. Apple's historical dominance in messaging among iOS users may erode by mid-November 2026.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%