US blocks export of OpenAI's Sol model to China within 6 months
Resolves: The US Department of Commerce or another relevant agency issues an official order blocking the export of OpenAI's Sol model to China or any other designated adversarial state, effective before 2027-01-09.
US blocks export of OpenAI's Sol model to China within 6 months
Market overview
The US government is under pressure to prevent AI models like Sol from reaching adversarial states. Given recent bipartisan support for stricter AI export controls and OpenAI's Sol's classification as a 'frontier' model, an export ban is likely within six months.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2027-01-09
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The US Department of Commerce or another relevant agency issues an official order blocking the export of OpenAI's Sol model to China or any other designated adversarial state, effective before 2027-01-09.
Source: user-generated
More regulatory markets
- Crypto billionaire Harborne faces FCA scrutiny over £5m gift — 55% Yes
- Crypto billionaire Harborne will face FCA scrutiny — 60% Yes
- Crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne’s donation triggers FCA inquiry into funding transparency — 70% Yes
- Crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne will face parliamentary scrutiny over £5m gift — 55% Yes
- Harborne crypto holdings face regulatory scrutiny — 60% Yes
- SEC approves at least 2 new Bitcoin ETFs by Q4 2027 — 75% Yes
- SEC approves Kalshi's crypto futures products by 2026-Q3 — 55% Yes
- Iran's central bank bans crypto mining by 2027 Q1 — 85% Yes