Will the U.S. government implement a clear, direct pathway to permanent residency for H-1B visa holders by the end of 2026?
Resolves: YES if the U.S. Congress passes and the President signs into law, or a relevant federal agency implements, a new policy or program that establishes a clearly defined and significantly expedited pathway for H-1B visa holders to obtain U.S. permanent residency (Green Card) by December 31, 2026. This must be a pathway distinct from existing employment-based green card categories and their current backlogs. NO otherwise.
Will the U.S. government implement a clear, direct pathway to permane…
Market overview
The current system often leaves H-1B holders in limbo for years, contributing to insecurity. While there's ongoing discussion, a comprehensive legislative change to create a 'direct pathway' (e.g., bypassing the green card lottery or extensive backlogs) is a significant political hurdle.
Politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 10%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the U.S. Congress passes and the President signs into law, or a relevant federal agency implements, a new policy or program that establishes a clearly defined and significantly expedited pathway for H-1B visa holders to obtain U.S. permanent residency (Green Card) by December 31, 2026. This must be a pathway distinct from existing employment-based green card categories and their current backlogs. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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