California capital gains tax revenue drops 15% in 2026
Resolves: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration reports 2026 capital gains tax revenue of $18.2 billion or lower, representing at least a 15% year-over-year decrease from 2025.
user-generated· earnings
California capital gains tax revenue drops 15% in 2026
Market overview
California's heavy reliance on capital gains (35% of total income tax revenue) will result in a 15% decline in 2026 due to a sharp correction in tech stock valuations and IPO activity. This follows a 5% decline in 2025 as markets cooled.
earnings prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 78%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
California Department of Tax and Fee Administration reports 2026 capital gains tax revenue of $18.2 billion or lower, representing at least a 15% year-over-year decrease from 2025.
Source: user-generated
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