Will the US GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 be reported as negative (quarter-over-quarter annualized) by the end of 2024?

An 'uneasy economy' could imply a risk of recession or contraction. A negative GDP growth rate would be a strong indicator of economic unease. While not the base case, the current economic environment presents some downside risks.

Implied probability (Yes)

35%

Closes

2026-09-02