US widens polysilicon import access by 2026-12-31
Resolves: The U.S. Department of Commerce issues a final Section 232 determination by 2026-12-31 stating that imported polysilicon imports do not threaten national security, resulting in policy adjustments that increase import access.
US widens polysilicon import access by 2026-12-31
Market overview
The U.S. Department of Commerce will conclude the Section 232 investigation into imported polysilicon by December 31, 2026, and determine that imports do not pose a national security threat. This decision would lead to reduced tariffs or expanded import quotas.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The U.S. Department of Commerce issues a final Section 232 determination by 2026-12-31 stating that imported polysilicon imports do not threaten national security, resulting in policy adjustments that increase import access.
Source: user-generated
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