Will the United States formally re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or a substantially similar nuclear agreement with Iran by December 31, 2028?

The headline mentions 'after Iran war ends,' implying a potential resolution to the Iran nuclear issue. This question assesses the likelihood of a formal return to, or a new version of, the nuclear deal with Iran within the specified timeframe, which could be a prerequisite for broader regional stability. The probability is low given current geopolitical tensions.

Implied probability (Yes)

15%

Closes

2030-08-22