China's DeepSeek releases AI model more powerful than U.S. counterparts by 2026-09-30

DeepSeek will successfully launch a closed-source AI model outperforming current U.S. models on benchmarks by September 2026, driven by accelerated domestic AI development and relaxed export restrictions. This will intensify U.S. concerns over model theft and espionage.

Implied probability (Yes)

75%