Will there be a verifiable military incident involving US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz by November 5, 2024?

The headline suggests escalating threats, and Kharg Island's strategic location makes it a potential flashpoint. Increased tensions often lead to military encounters, but both sides generally try to avoid direct conflict, especially before a US election.

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Closes

2026-09-09