U.S. stock market will decline 3% within 30 days due to geopolitical escalation

Sanctions on China-linked entities and rising Middle East tensions typically trigger market risk-off sentiment. Given the scale of the sanctions and potential for further escalation, a 3% pullback in major U.S. indices (e.g., S&P 500) within 30 days is probable.

Implied probability (Yes)

68%