Will the United States and Iran sign a new nuclear deal or a significant agreement on sanctions relief by October 31, 2028?

JD Vance's statement suggests ongoing negotiations. This question focuses on a formal, verifiable agreement between the two nations, which would likely involve either nuclear program limitations or sanctions adjustments. The probability is moderate given the historical difficulty of such agreements and the upcoming US election cycle.

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Closes

2030-08-27