S&P 500 falls below 4,800 by end of June 2026

A hotter-than-expected inflation reading will likely trigger a risk-off sentiment, with equities reacting negatively to higher rate expectations. The S&P 500 is currently near 5,200, and a 3.8% CPI could push it below 4,800 by month-end.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%