Will the average real wage growth for workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more in the U.S. be negative for Q4 2024, as reported by the BLS?

The headline mentions 'hidden costs for workers,' which could include diminished earning potential upon re-employment. This question aims to assess if long-term unemployed individuals face a real wage penalty when they return to the workforce. Negative real wage growth would indicate a decrease in purchasing power.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2026-09-02