OpenAI misses Anthropic in coding tools by year-end
Resolves: Anthropic’s coding tool revenue/share or developer adoption exceeds OpenAI’s in verifiable third-party reports by 2026-12-31.
user-generated· product
OpenAI misses Anthropic in coding tools by year-end
Market overview
By December 31, 2026, OpenAI’s coding tools will rank behind Anthropic’s Claude Code in developer adoption and revenue, with Anthropic’s market share exceeding 35% in the segment. This outcome reflects Anthropic’s early-mover advantage in enterprise-grade coding agents.
product prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Anthropic’s coding tool revenue/share or developer adoption exceeds OpenAI’s in verifiable third-party reports by 2026-12-31.
Source: user-generated
More product markets
- Will Ocado partnership meet 35% productivity target? — 70% Yes
- Will DCI announce new EV contract worth >$50M? — 55% Yes
- Will the company announce a renewable energy contract by 2026-12-31? — 65% Yes
- Will enGene Therapeutics report positive interim data for DETAIL trial by Q1 2027? — 35% Yes
- Will Phase 2 enrollment reach 50/60 patients by 2026-12-31? — 90% Yes
- Will ServiceTitan announce a major AI partnership or acquisition by end of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will fintech firms offering real-time fund verification see increased demand? — 75% Yes
- Will private label exceed 33% penetration by EOY? — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…