Will Iran completely block the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic for at least 24 consecutive hours before December 31, 2028?

The headline indicates Iran's vow to 'completely' block the Strait of Hormuz. While such threats are common, a full, sustained blockage is a significant escalation with global repercussions, making it a low probability event. This question focuses on a verifiable, complete blockage.

Implied probability (Yes)

5%

Closes

2030-08-30