Will the yield on the UK 10-year Gilt exceed 4.5% by May 10, 2028?

Market overview

The headline suggests bond traders are bracing for a new gilts selloff. A significant selloff would likely push yields higher. This question tests the market's reaction to potential political uncertainty following local elections.

Economics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2030-07-30

More Economics markets

• OPEC partnership or acquisition announced? — 32% Yes
• Will Logistics Automation stock price increase by November 2026? — 59% Yes
• Grammy Awards partnership or acquisition announced? — 58% Yes
• Will IPO Market stock price increase by September 2026? — 46% Yes
• Will Interest Rates stock price increase by April 2027? — 41% Yes
• Chainsaw Man partnership or acquisition announced? — 74% Yes
• Fusion Energy partnership or acquisition announced? — 55% Yes
• Will Doja Cat stock price increase by November 2026? — 66% Yes

Browse all Economics markets →