Will US existing home sales increase by at least 5% in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024?

The headline states homebuyers are retreating despite easing rates. This question assesses if the slight rate easing, or other market factors, will be sufficient to reverse the retreat and lead to a measurable increase in home sales by the end of the year. A 5% increase would signal a notable shift.

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Closes

2026-09-01